Re: [ba-poker] Quantification of skill edge in tournaments

["Ed Fernandez" <edf(deleted the rest)>]

On Feb 2, 2004, at 11:46 AM, William Chen wrote:

> Frankly, your edge lies mostly in
> picking up something like 66 and getting your
> opponnent to shove in with a substandarh hand like J2.
> Getting to pick up 66 here *is* a big part of your 15%
> equity edge, and Crunch was right in taking it.
>
> Bill

Bill,

Its quite possible I'm being stupid here, I definitely don't have the 
math background that you do, so bear with me on this. I thought (from 
JP's analysis) the math showed that it was basically a coin flip 
whether calling with the 66 was the right call or not? So in my mind, 
if the decision is really that close, then the overwhelming factor as 
to whether to make the call depends upon the two other players. One we 
have as the maniac, but what about the short stack? Since there is a 
substantial jump in money between 3rd and 2nd here, I think figuring 
out how the short stack is reacting to the maniac is the most important 
factor in deciding whether to call or not. If the short stack is 
letting himself get blinded off, why in the world would you gamble here 
with 66? You should be pounding on the short stack too, and once he 
gets busted, then you take your shots with the maniac. I'm I missing 
something here? Also, to a point I made earlier, I don't think anyone 
said the maniac was calling all in often, just that he was raising all 
in when he played and not likely to lay down a hand once he did raise 
less than all in. So you could still go after the maniacs blinds as 
well by moving all in. Doesn't seem like you need to do anything that 
is a close call here until you move up into second.

Ed