Re: [ba-poker] Quantification of skill edge in tournaments

[William Chen <wchen_8369(deleted the rest)>]

Ed,

I'm basing this on what fossilman said [included
below].  Now I don't know about JP's equity
calculations specifically, but I think the equity
numbers that were ran pointed to calling, assuming you
will win 60% of the time with your 66. The point of
Crunch's post was that he used "skill multipliers" for
the chip stacks and found that unless he had a 30%
edge or so over the maniac, he should call with 66. 

Stacks T130/T140/T70, antes 3, blinds 6/12, prizes
2.5K/5K/10K?  I should wait until I get home to plug
in the actual numbers, but... 

One thing that might have skewed JP's results is that
Landrum-Burns no longer applies once you take on the
maniac and double through.  The problem with the LB
model is that it assumes your chance of third is the
same as your chance of second,  whereas in reality
with stacks of 273/67/10, your chance of third is
almost negligible (here's it's close to 1%).   A
better approximation is to take the fraction of chips
you have (273/350) and use that as the ratio of
distances between the 1st and second prize money.

Bill   



Gregory Raymer wrote: 

Only slightly better than Bert?  Then you really must
suck, because Bert 
makes about as many bad decisions as you can make when
playing poker.  What 
he has going for him is the classic tourney play of
aggression.  That is why 
he can have so many successful results.  Also, for
some reason, even though 
he calls with any piece of the board, and has done so
for years, people 
still try to constantly bluff him out of pots.  It's
like, they know their 
AK (which has now missed the flop) is better than what
Bert started with, so 
they deserve to win, and they're going to keep betting
until they do (or the 
hand is over, whichever comes first). 
Your comment in another post about Bert folding hands
to you where he had 
some of the board, or a good draw, is unparalleled. 
Unless he showed you 
his cards, I don't believe he had anything at all when
he folded.  Because 
he doesn't fold those hands to anybody else that I'm
aware of. 

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)