Re: [ba-poker] Re: Re: [FARGO] Is 3:2 Enough? Thanks

[Andrew Prock <prock(deleted the rest)>]

On Mon, 2 Feb 2004, Steve Daniel wrote:

> Jerrod is correct.
>
> The initial model branches are not
>
> 1.    Call and lose
> 2.    Call and win
> 3,    Fold
>
> They are:
>
> 1.    Call and lose
> 2.    Call and win
> 3.    Fold and Bert Folds
> 4.    Fold and Bert calls and loses
> 5.    Fold and Bert wins

I would like to point out that there is one more
*critical* factor which could/should be considered.
With which hands will Bert overcall?

It's exactly those hands which take a huge lump out
of your EV when you are playing hands like 66.  It's
one of the reasons that I would consider it to be a
poor hand in this situation.  The BB is getting 5:1
on his action and seems to be a reasonable player.
There are a lot of hands he might play here.

If he plays any two broadway cards, any pair or
any suited ace, he drops your equity down to ~36%.

You've still got an overlay, but is it enough?

- Andrew



- Andrew