Re: [ba-poker] Math is hard, and sometimes harder to explain.

["David S. Heller" <david(deleted the rest)>]

I'll try the intuitive approach, because math is hard.

If the chance of getting quads once is 1/10, then the chance of not getting
quads once is 9/10.  But that includes both more than once, and less than
once.  If you played a game with ton of wild cards, maybe quads would be a
very average hand, and the reason the probability of quads once in a session
is only 1/10 is that in most sessions, you get lots of quads.

So I think the factor missing is, in some intuitive way, how common are
quads in this game?  If they're quite rare, and you get them 1/10 in a
session because sessions are very long, then I think you can approximate the
probability of twice in a session by 81/100, since that's the chance of
"missing quads once" twice in a row.  Similarly, 729/1000 for getting quads
thrice (and yes thrice is a word).