I am continuing to work on a 3-Player pre-flop NLHE model and have stumbled across an interesting question. When we are faced with an all-in call or fold decision we (or at least I) have been thinking in terms of what is the minimum hand who's estimated winning percent against the range of hand my opponent may hold will yield a positive equity of calling.
For example, We may feel we need to be a 60% favorite against a random hand so we should call with all hands better then A6s which would be 15.7% of all hands.. However, if you compute the expected winning percent of all hands A6s or better, the average winning percent is 65.6%. So perhaps the better question is what is the minimum hand such that the expected winning percent of all hands in that range will yield a positive equity of calling. In this case if we need the average winning percent of the range of hands to be 60% should call with the top 39.2% of hands which includes such puppies as Q5s, K2s and T8s who's winning percents are down in the 52.6% range.
Comments Please