Re: [ba-poker] RGPM: Moderator Selection - Call for Volunteers

["Ron Morgan" <nodepot(deleted the rest)>]

> From: Jeffrey Siegal <jbs(deleted the rest)>
> To: "David S. Heller" <david(deleted the rest)>
> CC: ba-poker(deleted the rest)
> Subject: Re: [ba-poker] RGPM: Moderator Selection - Call for Volunteers
> Date: Fri, 19 Mar 2004 18:14:28 -0800
>
> David S. Heller wrote:
> > If I do it my way, and I finish in the money 75% of the time, and it's
> > equally split among 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, the buyin is $11, 1st gets $50, 2nd
> > pays $30, 3rd pays $20, so my expectation is
> > (39*.25)+(19*.25)+(9*.25)-(11*.25)=+$14  [if I did that right]  On those
> > very rare occasions when I get AA in the first hand, is my expectation
> > higher than $14 if I jam immediately?
>
> Well, figure it out for some specific scenario.  The standard cliche is 
> aces all in preflop against a full table (don't remember if it is 9 or 10) 
> figures to win about 30% of the time.  That would make your expectation 
> about $15 (30% of the time you win $50).
>
> But you're ignoring the time factor.  Its (say) $15 in EV in one hand, 
> rather than $14 in EV over however many minutes.  Even if the EV were 
> somewhat lower, the EV rate as a function of time could still be much, much 
> higher.

Except the "dollars" you're playing with in low buy-in online tournaments 
are not real dollars, you get 800 play dollars for your buy-in. Eventually 
the tourney winner has 8K play dollars to win $50. This is why you get 9 or 
10 all-ins on the first hand, because no one thinks they're playing with 
real dollars. In large part the folks with the larger capacity to suspend 
disbelief, and pretend that they're winning and losing real money stand the 
best chance of winning these tourneys since they make better poker choices.

It's been my experience in these low buyin tourneys that more often than not 
the winner of a first hand all-in orgy doesn't hold onto their big stack 
long enough to last deep into the game, having lost it in further 
hair-brained all-in bets.

Ron

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