[ba-poker] Folding AA preflop

[Ming Lee <mingmlee(deleted the rest)>]

In Dave's scenario payouts are $50, $30, and $20.  Suppose everyone goes 
all-in the first hand, he looks and sees AA in the BB.

He calls and wins 30% of the time against 9 opponents.  His EV is $15.

If he folds (barring ties), there will be one remaining opponent and his EV 
is $30+

Sure this is an extreme example but I wanted to show that there is some 
merit to Dave's statement.


David S. Heller wrote:
> If I do it my way, and I finish in the money 75% of the time, and it's
> equally split among 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, the buyin is $11, 1st gets $50, 2nd
> pays $30, 3rd pays $20, so my expectation is
> (39*.25)+(19*.25)+(9*.25)-(11*.25)=+$14  [if I did that right]  On those
> very rare occasions when I get AA in the first hand, is my expectation
> higher than $14 if I jam immediately?

Jeffrey Siegal wrote:
> Well, figure it out for some specific scenario.  The standard cliche is 
> aces all in preflop against a full table (don't remember if it is 9 or 10) 
> figures to win about 30% of the time.  That would make your expectation 
> about $15 (30% of the time you win $50).