Re: [ba-poker] Folding AA preflop

[Jeffrey Siegal <jbs(deleted the rest)>]

Ming Lee wrote:
> In Dave's scenario payouts are $50, $30, and $20.  Suppose everyone goes 
> all-in the first hand, he looks and sees AA in the BB.
>
> He calls and wins 30% of the time against 9 opponents.  His EV is $15.
>
> If he folds (barring ties), there will be one remaining opponent and his 
> EV is $30+
>
> Sure this is an extreme example but I wanted to show that there is some 
> merit to Dave's statement.

Not really.  What's really happening here is my scenario doesn't match 
his perfectly.  He said that if he folds his EV is going to be about 
$14.  From that we can conclude that not *everyone* is going all in on 
the first hand.  I just used that simplified premise to make it easier 
to estimate the EV of the aces if you do play.


> David S. Heller wrote:
>
> > If I do it my way, and I finish in the money 75% of the time, and it's
> > equally split among 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, the buyin is $11, 1st gets $50, 
> > 2nd
> > pays $30, 3rd pays $20, so my expectation is
> > (39*.25)+(19*.25)+(9*.25)-(11*.25)=+$14  [if I did that right]  On those
> > very rare occasions when I get AA in the first hand, is my expectation
> > higher than $14 if I jam immediately?
>
>
> Jeffrey Siegal wrote:
>
> > Well, figure it out for some specific scenario.  The standard cliche 
> > is aces all in preflop against a full table (don't remember if it is 9 
> > or 10) figures to win about 30% of the time.  That would make your 
> > expectation about $15 (30% of the time you win $50).