Re: [ba-poker] Play or Fold???

[David Orr <dmorr(deleted the rest)>]

On Sun, Nov 28, 2004 at 08:21:21PM -0800, Nick Farrah wrote:
> You make the call . . .
> 
> I was playing in the Oaks limit hold 'em tournament today.  There are six of 
> us left at the final table.  Sixth place pays $750; fifth place pays $940 . . 
> . on up to $5000 for first.
> 
> Blinds are $1000/$2000; limits are $2000/$4000.
> 
> I'm in the SB with $1000 already in the pot for my blind and one more $1000 
> chip in front of me.
> 
> UTG goes all in with $2000, i.e., he has the same amount of chips as I do and 
> would have had to go all in either this hand or the next.  There's one other 
> caller in late position.
> 
> I have pocket jacks.

I think you really have to call here.

If you fold and the small stack loses, you get $940 plus some tiny chance at 
more
money.  If the small stack wins, you are probably getting $750.

Now, if you call, if you win you actually have chips, and you have a
strong hand.  If you lose, if the small stack loses (which he would have
done anyway), you get $845, otherwise you get the $750 -- this is
basically the same as if you'd folded, except that in the case where you
both lose you lose $85 from 5th place.  But you get a huge swing if you
win, especially if you beat the small stack who would have won otherwise.

I think you're giving up a small amount of equity by calling if you only
examine 5th and 6th places.  But playing here gives you a chance to quad
up and have some chips -- you now have real equity in the larger prizes,
and you rate to have the best hand and win more than your fair share of
the chips in the pot.

Note that it's helpful that you are tied with the small stack, though it
would have been better if you had him covered, of course.  That helps,
since when both of you lose, you do better than 6th place.

Congrats on a final table appearance and a decent profit.

- Dave