Re: Shuffle Master (was Re: [ba-poker] Bay 101 trip report)

[Nick Christenson <npc(deleted the rest)>]

> I find it pretty hard to believe that a company that charges multiple 
> thousands of dollars per unit and gets a monthly cut and is used by 
> casinos all over the world would not have made the shuffle good enough 
> to stand up to testing by the casinos? Would they just accept it 
> without running their own tests on it? Seems pretty unlikely.

I'm inclined to agree with this sentiment, but it's entirely possible
that this can't be subjected to such a straightforward analysis.  
First, we have no idea what SM's testing program looked like before
these devices hit the street.  Moreover, in real life the wear-and-tear
on these devices could easily be very different than how it was
simulated in product R&D.

For example, even though they may have performed many (no idea how
many is "many") shuffles in testing, the conditions in the field 
are doubtless different.  I find it entirely plausible that food, 
beverages, humidity, dust, and grimy fingers could impair the device's 
ability to perform a good shuffle.  I have no evidence of this, I 
just find it plausible.

Further, these are mechanical devices that are not immune to failure.
Couple this with the fact that "card room" and "maintenance" are two
terms very rarely used in the same sentence, and the opportunity for
badness to occur clearly exists.  

I have absolutely no idea what SM's field testing program looks like.
I'd like to think that they periodically have someone at customer sites 
testing that card room's actual playing cards in the worn machines to 
make sure that the shuffle is appropriately random.  Heck, card rooms 
should take it upon themselves to do this sort of testing during 
their relatively quiet times.  I'd be shocked if any do, though.

Even with their problems, hand shuffles are well understood, and when
they go bad (which *can* happen), someone usually notices this and 
corrects this before too long.  Even though I do not have any personal 
reason to expect the SM devices don't do a good job, I do believe that 
if they do go bad, this fact might not be noticed in your average card 
room for an uncomfortably long time.

I'm trying not to be paranoid about this, but I believe there are 
reasonable reasons to be suspicious.

-- 
Nick Christenson
npc(deleted the rest)